Jeremy Piger, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Oregon, has developed a new model for determining the probability of an impending U.S. recession. The Federal Reserve Economic Dataset (FRED) has added Piger's model to its information database.
The model looks at four variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. Whereas the previous four models showed a less than 2 percent chance, the most recent model shows a 19.56 percent probability of recession.
Learn more at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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